Nō nā tata nei i pūrongo a China International Finance Securities mō te ao whānuiPūwhakawhiti Whatu E matapaetia ana ka eke te mākete ki te neke atu i te USD 10 piriona i te tau 2021, ā, neke atu i te 50 ōrau te mākete ā-rohe. I te tau 2022, ko te whakatinanatanga o te 400GPūwhakawhiti Whatui runga i te tauine nui me te pikinga tere o te rōrahi o te 800GPūwhakawhiti Whatue tumanakohia ana, me te tipu tonu o te hiahia mō ngā hua maramara whatu tere-teitei. Hei tāpiri, e ai ki a Omdia, ko te wāhi mākete mō ngā maramara whatu e whakamahia ana i roto i te 25G me runga ake i te utuPūwhakawhiti WhatuE ai ki te whakatau tata, ka piki ake te uara mai i te USD 1.356 piriona i te tau 2019 ki te USD 4.340 piriona i te tau 2025, me te matapae he 21.40 ōrau te tere tipu ā-tau.
Mā te matapae o te tipu o te hiahia mō ngā maramara whatu, tirohia te tipu o te tono mō ngā maramara whatu.Pūwhakawhiti Whatu ahumahi.
E matapaetia ana e LightCounting ka tipu te mākete whakawhiti whatu o te ao mā te 4.34% i te tau 2023, me te tere tipu ā-tau o te 11.43% mai i te tau 2024 ki te 2027.
E ai ki te whiwhinga a CICC, ko te rahi o te mākete o te ao mō ngā maramara whatu mō ngā whakawhitiwhitinga whatu i te tau 2021 e matapaetia ana ko te 14.67 piriona yuan. Ko te rahi o te mākete o ngā maramara whatu 2.5G, 10G, 25G me runga ake ko te 1.167 piriona yuan, 2.748 piriona yuan, me te 10.755 piriona yuan. E matapaetia ana e Omdia ko te rahi whānui o te mākete o ngā maramara whatu e whakamahia ana mō ngā kōwae whatu 25G me runga ake i te tau 2021 ko te 1.913 piriona tāra US, tata ki te 13 piriona yuan rānei.
I runga i ēnei raraunga, e matapaetia ana ko te mākete maramara whatu whakawhitiwhiti kōrero o te ao ka eke ki te 18-20% o te mākete waeine whatu i te tau 2021. Ko te rahi o te mākete maramara whatu e rite ana ka tatauhia i runga i te 18% o te mākete waeine whatu iti-mutunga me te 20% o te mākete utu nui.
I tēnei wā, ko te nuinga o ngā taputapu whakawhiti whatu me te hanganga hua kua pakeke ka tango i te hanganga awa-whā o PSM4, CWDM4 rānei. Ko ngā maramara whatu o te 10G me raro iho e rite ana ki ngā kōwae whatu 1G, 10G, me te 40G. E ai ki ngā raraunga matapae o LightCounting, ka tīmata te heke o ngā tukunga o ngā kōwae whatu whakawhitiwhiti matihiko 1G, 10G, me te 40G mai i te tau 2023, ka heke te rahi o te mākete mai i te 614 miriona tāra US i te tau 2022 ki te 150 miriona tāra US i te tau 2027. Mā te tango i te 18% hei ōwehenga, e matapaetia ana ka heke te rahi o te mākete maramara whatu e rite ana mai i te US$111 miriona i te tau 2022 ki te US$27 miriona i te tau 2027.
He nui ake te hoahoa whatunga pokapū raraunga i te pūnaha tawhito o te 10G/40G CLOS. Ko te nuinga o ngā kamupene Ipurangi ā-rohe e whakamahi ana i te hoahoa 25G/100G CLOS, ko ngā kamupene o Amerika Te Raki ia kei te neke ki ngā hoahoa whatunga matatau ake o te 100G/400G CLOS me te 800G. Ko ngā kōwae whatu matihiko tere-teitei i roto i te awhe o te 100G-800G e whakamahi ana i ngā maramara taiaho DFB me EML, ā, ko te tere baud he 25G, 53G, 56G. Ko te nuinga o ngā hua kōwae whatu 800G kei te mākete i tēnei wā e whakamahi ana i te hoahoa 8*100G, ā, e waru ngā maramara whatu 56G EML PAM4 e whakamahi ana.
E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga matapae a LightCounting ka piki tonu ngā tukunga o ngā kōwae whatu e mahi ana i te 25G, 100G, 400G me te 800G mai i te tau 2023 ki te 2027. I tēnei wā, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake te rahi o te mākete mai i te USD 4.450 piriona ki te USD 5 piriona i te tau 2022. Ka eke ki te US$7.269 piriona i te tau 2027, he tere tipu ā-tau whakamiharo mō ngā tau 5 o te 10.31%. E matapaetia ana hoki ka piki ake te rahi o te mākete maramara whatu mai i te US$890 miriona ki te US$1.453 piriona.
Ahokoretōia whakamuri He pumau te tono mō te 10G, kei te piki haere te tono mō te 25G
I te marama o Whiringa-ā-rangi 2022, kua eke te hanganga 5G o Haina ki tētahi taumata teitei, me te 2.287 miriona teihana turanga kua whakatinanahia puta noa i te motu. Ahakoa kua puhoi te tere tipu o te hanganga teihana turanga, e whakaatu ana ngā raraunga me te whakapai tonu o te urunga 5G me te whakarei ake i ngā tono, kei te piki haere te hiahia mō te whakawhānui ake i ngā whatunga midhaul me te backhaul ahokore. Ahakoa kua heke te tukunga o ngā waeine whatu 10G me te 25G o te ao mai i te tau 2022 ki te 2027, e matapaetia ana ka whakapai ake te rahi o te mākete o ngā waeine whatu fronthaul ahokore i te tau 2026, ina tīmata te whakatinanatanga o ngā waeine whatu neke atu i te 50G i roto i ngā puranga. E whakapono ana ngā tohunga ahumahi, kāore pea ngā waeine whatu 50G me te 100G e akiaki i te hokinga mai o te mākete whakawhiti 5G tae noa ki te tau 2026, ko ngā waeine whatu 5G 25G me runga ake e matapaetia ana ka pumau ki te $420 miriona i waenga i te tau 2023 me te tau 2025. I te mea kei te tipu haere tonu te tono mō te haereere 5G, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake ngā tukunga o ngā whakawhiti whatu 5G waenga-haul me te 10G mai i te 2.1 miriona waeine i te tau 2022 ki te 3.06 miriona waeine i te tau 2027, me te CAGR rima tau o te 7.68%. E matapaetia ana ka pumau te mākete whakawhiti whatu 10G me raro iho i te $90 miriona mā te tipu haere o te tono mākete, ā, e matapaetia ana ko te mākete maramara whatu e rite ana ki te $18.1 miriona. I te mākete waenga me te mākete hoki-whakamuri, e matapaetia ana ka tere tonu te tipu o te tono mō ngā kōwae whatu 25G, 100G, me te 200G mai i te tau 2023, ā, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake te rahi o te mākete mō ngā kōwae whatu waenga me te hoko-whakamuri 25G me runga ake mai i te US$103 miriona i te tau 2022 ki te US$171 miriona i te tau 2027. Ko te tere tipu ā-tau ko te 10.73%. E matapaetia ana hoki ka whānui ake te mākete maramara whatu e rite ana mai i te $21 miriona ki te $34 miriona.
Kei te piki haere tonu te tono mō te urunga waea 10G PON
Ko te Mahere Tau Rima 14 o Haina mō te umanga whakawhitiwhiti kōrero e whakatakoto ana i ngā whāinga nui mō ngā hanganga matihiko o te whenua. I tēnei wā, kei te whakamahere te kāwanatanga ki te whakatū i tētahi whatunga muka whatu gigabit hei tere ake i te hanganga o ngā "tāone gigabit" me te whakawhānui ake i te kapinga o ngā whatunga gigabit puta noa i te motu. I te mutunga o te tau 2022, e matapaetia ana e ngā kamupene whakawhitiwhiti kōrero taketake e toru ka eke te tapeke o ngā kaiwhakamahi urunga whānui Ipurangi pumau ki te 590 miriona. I roto i a rātou, ko te reiti urunga o te 100Mbps me runga ake ko te 554 miriona, he pikinga o te 55.13 miriona i te tau i mua. I taua wā anō, ko te maha o ngā kaiwhakamahi urunga me te reiti 1000 Mbps me runga ake i eke ki te 917.5 miriona, he pikinga o te 57.16 miriona i te tau i mua. Ahakoa ēnei whanaketanga, kei reira tonu te wāhi hei whakapai ake, me te urunga o ngā kaiohauru Gigabit e matapaetia ana ko te 15.6% anake i te mutunga o te tau 2022. Hei whakatutuki i tēnei, kei te whakatairanga te kāwanatanga i te hanganga o ngā whatunga 10G-PON i roto i ngā tāone me ngā rohe matua. tāone, e aro ana ki te whakawhānui i te kapinga. I te Hakihea 2022, ka eke te maha o ngā tauranga 10G PON me ngā āheinga ratonga whatunga Gigabit ki te 15.23 miriona, e kapi ana i te neke atu i te 500 miriona whare puta noa i te motu. Nā tēnei ka waiho te tauine whatunga gigabit me te taumata kapinga o Haina hei mea teitei rawa atu i te ao. Ki te titiro whakamua, ka haere tonu te whanaketanga o te mākete PON, ā, e matapaetia ana e LightCounting ka tukuna ngāPONKa heke iho ngā whakawhiti whatu i raro i te 10G mai i te tau 2022. He rerekē, e matapaetia ana ka tere te tipu o ngā tuku PON 10G, ka eke ki te 26.9 miriona waeine i te tau 2022 me te 73 miriona waeine i te tau 2027, me te CAGR rima tau o te 22.07%. Ahakoa ka heke te rahi o te mākete o ngā kōwae whatu 10G mai i tōna tihi i te tau 2022, ka heke anō hoki te mākete maramara whatu e rite ana mai i te US$141.4 miriona ki te US$57 miriona. I te tirohanga whakamua, e matapaetia ana ka tutuki i te 25G PON me te 50G PON te whakatinanatanga iti i te tau 2024, ā, ka whai ake ko te whakatinanatanga nui ake i ngā tau e whai ake nei. E matapaetia ana ka neke atu te rahi o te mākete o ngā kōwae whatu PON 25G me runga ake i te 200 miriona tāra US i te tau 2025, ā, ka eke te mākete maramara whatu e rite ana ki te 40 miriona tāra US. I te nuinga, ka tipu tonu, ka whanake hoki te hanganga matihiko o Haina i ngā tau e haere ake nei.
Wā tuku: Maehe-22-2023